The Leadership Illusion… When Confidence Doesn’t Match Competence

Have you ever met a leader who radiates confidence, speaks with certainty, and takes charge, but leaves a trail of dysfunction behind? That leader may be operating under the influence of the Dunning-Kruger Effect. Originally identified in 1999 by psychologists David Dunning and Justin Kruger, this cognitive bias explains a strange paradox: those with the least ability often overestimate their skills, while those who are highly competent tend to underestimate theirs.

In executive leadership, this plays out in two powerful ways. First, there are the overconfident leaders who resist feedback, believing they’ve “arrived.” These leaders may dominate meetings, dismiss input from their teams, and underestimate the complexities of leadership. They assume their way is the best way… until results falter or engagement tanks. Without coaching or external feedback, their blind spots can go unchecked for years.

Coaching becomes a crucial intervention. It introduces tools like 360-degree feedback, emotional intelligence assessments, and scenario-based reflection to firmly hold up the mirror. A skilled coach doesn’t just tell leaders where they’ve gone wrong; they guide them in unpacking the stories they’ve told themselves and replacing them with more accurate, empowering narratives.

On the flip side are the high-performing but self-doubting leaders. These individuals are often deeply talented but second-guess their instincts. They may avoid speaking up, defer decisions, or hold back from career opportunities out of a misplaced belief that they “aren’t ready yet.” Ironically, their hesitation keeps them from delivering even more value—and from seeing just how skilled they already are.

This underconfidence is just as damaging as overconfidence. Coaching here focuses on building self-awareness, celebrating small wins, and helping leaders connect their performance with their inner sense of worth. One director, for instance, was paralyzed in board meetings, fearing her ideas weren’t sharp enough. With coaching, she began to own her wins, speak with more clarity, and let go of perfectionism.

What’s common in both cases? A gap between perception and reality. This is where the Dunning-Kruger Effect thrives. Coaching bridges that gap. Not by inflating egos or breaking people down, but by helping them see themselves clearly, develop where needed, and lead with authenticity.

Great leadership is not about always being right or never doubting yourself. It’s about accurate self-assessment, humility, and the willingness to grow. The best leaders are those who stay curious about their impact and are brave enough to face the truth.

If you're a coach, HR leader, or executive looking to evolve, understanding the Dunning-Kruger Effect, and addressing it through coaching, may be one of the most transformative decisions you can make.